Anthropogenic impact in the Maya Lowlands of Petén,Guatemala, during the last 5500 years          下载免费PDF全文

D. Battistel  M. Roman  A. Marchetti  N. M. Kehrwald  M. Radaelli  E. Balliana  G. Toscano  C. Barbante 《第四纪科学杂志》2018,33(2):166-176

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Morphodynamic assessment of side channel systems using a simple one‐dimensional bifurcation model and a comparison with aerial images          下载免费PDF全文

R. Pepijn van Denderen  Ralph M. J. Schielen  Astrid Blom  Suzanne J. M. H. Hulscher  Maarten G. Kleinhans 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2018,43(6):1169-1182

Side channel construction is a common intervention applied to increase a river's conveyance capacity and to increase its ecological value. Past modelling efforts suggest two mechanisms affecting the morphodynamic change of a side channel: (1) a difference in channel slope between the side channel and the main channel and (2) bend flow just upstream of the bifurcation. The objective of this paper was to assess the conditions under which side channels generally aggrade or degrade and to assess the characteristic timescales of the associated morphological change. We use a one‐dimensional bifurcation model to predict the development of side channel systems and the characteristic timescale for a wide range of conditions. We then compare these results to multitemporal aerial images of four side channel systems. We consider the following mechanisms at the bifurcation to be important for side channel development: sediment diversion due to the bifurcation angle, sediment diversion due to the transverse bed slope, partitioning of suspended load, mixed sediment processes such as sorting at the bifurcation, bank erosion, deposition due to vegetation, and floodplain sedimentation. There are limitations to using a one‐dimensional numerical model as it can only account for these mechanisms in a parametrized manner, but the model reproduces general behaviour of the natural side channels until floodplain‐forming processes become important. The main result is a set of stability diagrams with key model parameters that can be used to assess the development of a side channel system and the associated timescale, which will aid in the future design and maintenance of side channel systems. © 2017 The Authors. Earth Surface Processes and Landforms published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.  相似文献   

Location and probability of shoal margin collapses in a sandy estuary          下载免费PDF全文

Wout M. van Dijk  Dick R. Mastbergen  Geeralt A. van den Ham  Jasper R. F. W. Leuven  Maarten G. Kleinhans 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2018,43(11):2342-2357

Channel bank failure, and collapses of shoal margins and beaches due to flow slides, have been recorded in Dutch estuaries for the past 200 years but have hardly been recognized elsewhere. Current predictions lack forecasting capabilities, because they were validated and calibrated for historic data of cross‐sections in specific systems, allowing local hindcast rather than location and probability forecasting. The objectives of this study were to investigate where on shoal margins collapses typically occur and what shoal margin collapse geometries and volumes are, such that we can predict their occurrence. We identified shoal margin collapses, generally completely submerged, from bathymetry data by analyzing digital elevation models of difference of the Western Scheldt for the period 1959–2015. We used the bathymetry data to determine the conditions for occurrence, specifically to obtain slope height and angle, and applied these variables in a shoal margin collapse predictor. We found 299 collapses along 300 km of shoal margin boundaries over 56 years, meaning that more than five collapses occur on average per year. The average shoal margin collapse body is well approximated by a 1/3 ellipsoid shape, covers on average an area of 34 000 m² and has an average volume of 100 000 m³. Shoal margin collapses occur mainly at locations where shoals take up a proportionally larger area than average in the cross‐section of the entire estuary, and occur most frequently where lateral shoal margin displacement is low. A receiver operating characteristic curve shows that the forecasting method predicts the shoal margin collapse location well. We conclude that the locations of the shoal margin collapses are well predicted by the variation in conditions of the relative slope height and angle within the Western Scheldt, and likely locations are at laterally relatively stable shoal margins. This provides hypotheses aiding the recognition of these features in sandy estuaries worldwide. Copyright © 2018 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

The Effect of the Betatron Mechanism on the Dynamics of Superthermal Electron Fluxes within Dipolizations in the Magnetotail     

A. Yu. Malykhin  E. E. Grigorenko  E. A. Kronberg  P. W. Daly 《Geomagnetism and Aeronomy》2018,58(6):744-752

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Main Properties of Forbush Effects Related to High-Speed Streams from Coronal Holes     

A. A. Melkumyan  A. V. Belov  M. A. Abunina  A. A. Abunin  E. A. Eroshenko  V. A. Oleneva  V. G. Yanke 《Geomagnetism and Aeronomy》2018,58(2):154-168

The IZMIRAN database of Forbush effects and interplanetary disturbances was used to study features of the action of high-speed solar wind streams from coronal holes on cosmic rays. Three hundred and fifty Forbush effects created by coronal holes without other actions were distinguished. The mean values and distributions have been found for different characteristics of events from this group and compared with all Forbush effects and Forbush effects caused by coronal ejections. Despite the great differences in high-speed streams from coronal holes, this group turned out to be more compact and uniform as compared to events related to coronal ejections. Regression dependences and correlation relations between different parameters of events for the studied groups have been obtained. It has been shown that Forbush effects caused by coronal ejections depend considerably more strongly on the characteristics of interplanetary disturbances as compared to Forbush effects related to coronal holes. This suggests a significant difference between the modulation mechanisms of Forbush effects of different types and corroborates earlier conclusions based on indirect data.  相似文献   

Nonequilibrium Effects in Atmospheric Perturbations Caused by Solar Radiation Flux     

A.?B.?AndreevEmail author  V.?M.?Somsikov  S.?N.?Mukasheva  V.?I.?Kapytin  K.?A.?Nurgalieva 《Geomagnetism and Aeronomy》2018,58(1):106-112

The effects of atmospheric nonequilibrium in the generation of wave perturbations due to the solar radiation flux are studied. Equations of nonequilibrium thermodynamics are used to perform an assessment of the channels of solar energy transformation into the atmosphere for different altitudes. As a result of calculations of the dispersion relation for a nonequilibrium atmosphere, we consider how the flux of solar radiation changes the spectrum of natural atmospheric oscillations at different altitudes and for different solar activities. A qualitative relation between the results of wave spectra calculations and the data of ionosphere dynamics observations for different intensities of the solar radiation flux has been established.  相似文献   

Galactic Cosmic Ray Intensity in the Upcoming Minimum of the Solar Activity Cycle     

M.?B.?KrainevEmail author  G.?A.?Bazilevskaya  M.?S.?Kalinin  A.?K.?Svirzhevskaya  N.?S.?Svirzhevskii 《Geomagnetism and Aeronomy》2018,58(2):169-177

During the prolonged and deep minimum of solar activity between cycles 23 and 24, an unusual behavior of the heliospheric characteristics and increased intensity of galactic cosmic rays (GCRs) near the Earth’s orbit were observed. The maximum of the current solar cycle 24 is lower than the previous one, and the decline in solar and, therefore, heliospheric activity is expected to continue in the next cycle. In these conditions, it is important for an understanding of the process of GCR modulation in the heliosphere, as well as for applied purposes (evaluation of the radiation safety of planned space flights, etc.), to estimate quantitatively the possible GCR characteristics near the Earth in the upcoming solar minimum (~2019–2020). Our estimation is based on the prediction of the heliospheric characteristics that are important for cosmic ray modulation, as well as on numeric calculations of GCR intensity. Additionally, we consider the distribution of the intensity and other GCR characteristics in the heliosphere and discuss the intercycle variations in the GCR characteristics that are integral for the whole heliosphere (total energy, mean energy, and charge).  相似文献   

The Young Sun,Conditions on the Early Earth,and the Origin of Life     

Ragulskaya  M. V.  Khramova  E. G.  Obridko  V. N. 《Geomagnetism and Aeronomy》2018,58(7):877-887

Geomagnetism and Aeronomy - The article analyzes the existing theoretical models of the formation of the solar system and the early physical conditions on Earth from the point of view of the...  相似文献   

Hydrocarbons in the Suspension and Sediments of the Baltic Sea     

I. A. Nemirovskaya 《Water Resources》2018,45(3):357-368

The article gives the results of studying the concentration and composition of aliphatic and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons in suspension in surface waters at sections from the English Channel and Skagerak Strait to various regions of the Baltic Sea (2010–2015) and in water and bottom sediments of the southeastern part of the sea in the water area of the Kravtsovskoe field (2008–2015). In recent years, the surface waters of open areas of the Baltic Sea showed a decrease in hydrocarbon concentrations down to background levels (12–33 μg/L). The maximal concentration of hydrocarbons (in excess of the MAC) was recorded in different seasons in navigation areas, including the English Channel and Pregola R. mouth. In the zone of the Kravtsovskoe field, the concentration and composition of hydrocarbons in water depends on their inflow from the bank, and the same characteristics in bottom sediments, on the rate of their leakage from sediment stratum. A decline in these processes have led to a decrease in hydrocarbon concentrations in the sediments of a local area near D-6 platform to background levels (5–7 μg/g) and to the predominance of terrigenous, rather than petroleum, alkanes in hydrocarbon compositions.  相似文献   

Modeling Water and Heat Balance Components for Large Agricultural Region Utilizing Information from Meteorological Satellites     

E. L. Muzylev  Z. P. Startseva  A. B. Uspensky  E. V. Volkova 《Water Resources》2018,45(5):672-684

The method has been developed to evaluate water and heat balance components for vegetation covered area of regional scale based on the refined physical-mathematical model of vertical water and heat exchange between land surface and atmosphere (Land Surface Model, LSM) for vegetation season adapted to satellite information on land surface and meteorological conditions. The LSM is accommodated for utilizing satellite-derived estimates of vegetation and meteorological characteristics as model parameters and input variables. Estimates of these characteristics presented as distributions of their values over the study area have been obtained from AVHRR/NOAA, MODIS/EOS Terra and Aqua, SEVIRI/Meteosat-9, -10 data. To build such estimates methods and technologies have been developed and refined using results of thematic processing measurement data from these sensors. Among them the original Multi Threshold Method (MTM) has been developed and tested to calculate daily precipitation sums using rainfall intensity estimates retrieved from AVHRR and SEVIRI data with subsequent replacement of ground-measured rainfall amounts by these daily rainfalls. All technologies have been adapted to the study area with square of 227300 km² being the part of the Central Black Earth Region of European Russia. Developed earlier procedures of utilizing satellitederived estimates of vegetation and meteorological characteristics (including precipitation) in the model have been refined and verified. Final result of modeling is the fields of soil water content, evapotranspiration and other water and heat balance components of the region under study for years 2012–2014 vegetation seasons.  相似文献